Technology Futures


Much of the recent work has centred on measuring the value of the UK Ministry of Defence Research and Development programmes. A strong correlation was identified between R&D spend and later Military Equipment Quality, when measured comparatively, so governments ”get what they paid for”. Some of the early findings of this work have been published in Defence and Peace Economics in 2006: Click link

More recent work has looked into possible correlations between defence R&D spending and exports and other factors such as equipment age and the “replacement frequency” of different categories of equipment.

Some policy work has been published in February 2007 by the Adam Smith Institute, in a booklet called Britain & Security, to read the short essay
click link……..

The Chatham House International Security Program website is here

Some typical types of assignment from across Steven’s 15+ years technology consulting experience include:
Measuring the value of research output of a whole Government Ministry

Using novel option based techniques to evaluate the potential value of a system of oil fields

Evaluation of strategic technology options of technology in transfer for a major defence manufacturer

Assessment of the competitive technology position for an automotive manufacturer

Strategic study looking at where value is added across a whole Government Ministry

Ministerial level review of the rationale for and economic impact of a major technology programme, reported in Hansard

Appraisal of the strategic and product options for a high technology display company

Review of security policy for an oil major

Some of the techniques which have been used include:Adapting option theory, using real options to capture the future value of technology and to inform R&D Portfolio issues

Conjoint and comparative methods to evaluate future product value

Using Total Factor Productivity, like a “stock of knowledge” economic method to show the economic impact of technology and R&D investments at the macro level

Probability based market size estimation techniques

Technology Transfer process mapping, including practical experience of removing barriers and devising best routes to market, including the use of Technology Roadmaps

Hands on experience of the good and bad techniques for selling technology

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